AIS Holds Guidance Despite Strong H1, Flags Second-Half Headwinds
Thailand's largest mobile operator exceeded first-half targets but maintains full-year outlook amid integration costs, economic uncertainty, and virtual banking launch.
Revenue Growth Persists Amid Soft Economy
Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (ADVANC) reported solid second-quarter results that exceeded guidance across all key financial metrics, driven by resilient demand for connectivity despite a challenging economic environment. The company sustained revenue growth momentum with 16% year-on-year growth in mobile data usage and continued 5G subscriber adoption, which reached 19.7 million, representing 41% year-on-year growth (earnings call, 2026-08-06).
CFO Tee Seeumpornroj told analysts the company is maintaining both revenue growth and EBITDA guidance for the full year, though "we are confident that the results are likely to come narrow towards the upper end of our guidance" (earnings call, 2026-08-06). The cautious stance reflects concerns about geopolitical risks, a fragile economic environment, and a higher comparative base in the second half of 2025.
IT Spending and Integration Costs to Weigh on EBITDA
When pressed by HSBC analyst Piyush Choudhary on what would constrain EBITDA growth in the second half, Seeumpornroj cited several factors. "IT spending in this era is -- a lot of that is going to be OpEx, right? So cloud base and everything. And we are consolidating a lot of operating apps within the organization," he said (earnings call, 2026-08-06). The CFO also pointed to integration expenses on the broadband side and potential initial losses from the company's newly launched virtual bank, Click.
JPMorgan analyst Ranjan Sharma noted the guidance implies a quarterly EBITDA run rate of around THB 31.5 billion in the second half, down approximately 4% quarter-on-quarter. Seeumpornroj acknowledged the conservatism, explaining the company wants to "make sure that at least if we're going to miss, we're going to miss on the correct side of things" (earnings call, 2026-08-06). He also flagged expected cost increases on devices and equipment due to tariffs and trade tensions.
Broadband Growth Softens, Prepaid ARPU Improves
Fixed broadband subscriber growth slowed during the quarter, which management attributed to seasonal softness from the rainy season, integration activities, and severe weather. "This year, we have really hard wind storm in many areas in Thailand," Seeumpornroj said, adding that "when the economy is bad, I think right now broadband will feel the effect first" (earnings call, 2026-08-06).
Despite the slowdown, ARPU trends continued to improve, supported by a focus on high-quality customers and value-enhancing offerings including premium broadband packages and content. On the mobile side, prepaid ARPU increased quarter-on-quarter, driven by approximately 5% better consumption in the first half (earnings call, 2026-08-06).
Virtual Bank Launches Lending Service
The company's virtual bank Click, which launched deposit products in July, has now introduced lending services. The platform uses alternative data "enabling a faster and smarter loan approval process" and connects with AIS's loyalty program, offering 10x points for payments made through Click (earnings call, 2026-08-06).
The company reported EBITDA margin improvement and return on invested capital (ROIC) of 19%, with net debt to EBITDA around 2x and average interest costs at approximately 2.6% (earnings call, 2026-08-06). MarginX data shows the company will host an analyst/investor day on August 11, 2026, and has a cash dividend of THB 8.69 scheduled for August 19, 2026.
This article was generated by MarginX from the earnings call on 2026-08-06. It is not investment advice.