Maersk Raises Full-Year Guidance as Red Sea Disruption and Port Congestion Drive Spot Rate Surge
Danish shipping giant posts $1.6 billion EBIT in Q2 as bottlenecks at key terminals push freight rates sharply higher, with CEO warning of 'structural change' in rate environment.
Port Bottlenecks Drive Margin Expansion
A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S upgraded its full-year earnings guidance on Wednesday after port congestion and continued disruption from conflict in the Middle East drove a sharp increase in spot freight rates during the second quarter, pushing the Copenhagen-based container shipping giant to an EBIT of $1.6 billion.
The company now expects underlying EBIT of $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion for 2026, up from previous guidance, based on container market volume growth of approximately 4% (earnings call, 2026-08-13). Revenue for the quarter reached $15.8 billion, up 20% year-on-year, while EBITDA came in at $3 billion. Free cash flow turned positive at $549 million.
Red Sea Transit Resumes Gradually
CEO Vincent Clerc told analysts that Maersk has gradually reintroduced services through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, with four services now operational representing "about 1/3 of the volumes that would ordinarily be transiting through the Strait and the Suez Canal" (earnings call, 2026-08-13). The company announced the first reinstated service on July 6.
Despite the ongoing conflict, weekly container volumes have consistently exceeded pre-war levels, Clerc said, as the company successfully rerouted cargo to alternative corridors. The company implemented commercial measures in March to recover elevated costs linked to the Middle East situation through surcharges on both contract and spot business.
Structural Shift in Terminal Capacity
Clerc warned that the industry faces a fundamental capacity constraint at port terminals following years of underinvestment. "Cumulative headhaul growth from the Far East over the past 3 years... has now been around 25%, with cumulative global terminal capacity growth only at 10% over the same period" (earnings call, 2026-08-13).
The capacity crunch has created severe congestion at critical nodes, with Shanghai now experiencing 12-day waiting times. Clerc said this imbalance means "rate events such as what has happened since May will become more frequent in the years to come," describing the shift as a "structural change with the rate environment becoming more benign, albeit still with a lot of volatility remaining" (earnings call, 2026-08-13).
Gemini Alliance Delivers Cost Savings
Maersk confirmed that its Gemini Cooperation alliance, now fully implemented for 12 months, delivered ocean cost benefits of approximately $950 million, exceeding the upper end of its previously communicated $700-900 million range (earnings call, 2026-08-13). Asset utilization remained high at 96%, though Clerc noted future asset turn improvements would be "less pronounced" with Gemini now in the base.
Logistics Margins Continue Improvement
The company's Logistics & Services division posted its ninth consecutive quarter of year-on-year EBIT margin improvement, reaching 5.1% with revenue growth of 15%. CFO Robert Erni noted the company maintained a strong balance sheet with $18.5 billion in cash and deposits and a net cash position of $1.5 billion.
Maersk also announced a new greenfield terminal investment in Danang, Vietnam, with an exclusive 50-year concession to develop capacity exceeding 5.7 million TEU once fully built out, with Phase 1 targeted for 2029.
This article was generated by MarginX from the earnings call on 2026-08-13. It is not investment advice.